Do-over: The As sign Jason Giambi to an extension in 2001 -

It’s hard to remember it now, but there was a time when it wasn’t a foregone conclusion that every homegrown superstar would be too expensive for the A’s to retain. While the 2001 A’s were no longer the big-pocketed ballclub that made Rickey Henderson the highest-paid player in baseball in November 1989, they weren’t yet known for letting all of their homegrown stars walk. Mark McGwire spent 12 seasons with the A’s, and during the spring of 2001 the man who replaced him in the middle of the A’s lineup, Jason Giambi, appeared on the verge of following in his footsteps.

That spring was the start of Giambi’s final year under A’s team control. He was the reigning AL MVP and the veteran leader of a young team on the rise that had taken the mighty Yankees to five games in the 2000 ALDS. Leading up to Opening Day, all eyes were on the A’s and Giambi to see whether he would remain with his original franchise or test the free-agency waters in the offseason. The Yankees already loomed as a potential destination should he not re-sign with the A’s.

During spring training, the A’s and Giambi’s agent, Arn Tellem, came close on a deal to keep Giambi in green and gold, as they agreed on a potential six-year, $91 million extension. The deal hit a snag, however, when Giambi’s camp requested a no-trade clause and the A’s refused to include one. In December 2001, he signed a seven-year, $120 million contract with the Yankees.

The A’s decision not to give Giambi a no-trade clause was a franchise-altering moment. But what if the A’s had given Giambi that clause and he signed on the dotted line? Let’s take a look at the impact that decision had and what could have been if the A’s and Giambi had a chance for a do-over:

In the immediate aftermath of the spring contract negotiations ending, it’s likely not much would have changed. Giambi remained with the A’s for the entire 2001 season and was even better than he was in 2000, so the looming specter of free agency didn’t have a negative impact on his performance. Perhaps the A’s would have gotten off to a better start than their 8-17 April, but ultimately they won 102 games, which is hard to top even with a hot start.

The only reason the A’s didn’t win the division was that the Mariners had a record-breaking 116-win campaign. Not even the outcome of their heartbreaking five-game series loss to the Yankees in the ALDS was likely to change Giambi signing on the dotted line. But everything after that would have looked dramatically different.

The 2001 offseason was a tumultuous one for the A’s, who would ultimately lose Giambi, Johnny Damon and Jason Isringhausen in free agency. In response to those losses, the A’s traded for closer Billy Koch and outfielder David Justice and signed free agent Scott Hatteberg. They also traded for first-base prospect Carlos Peña.

The Koch deal would have happened regardless, but with Giambi on the payroll in 2002, the A’s likely wouldn’t have acquired Justice, who made $7 million that season ($5.8 million of that reportedly paid by the A’s). That said, while Justice was a strong clubhouse presence and a solid contributor to the A’s 103-win 2002 team, he was only worth 1.6 WAR that season, so not having him on the team wouldn’t have materially weakened the club. The A’s also wouldn’t have acquired both Hatteberg and Peña with Giambi still capable of playing first base on a daily basis, although it’s certainly possible they still would have made one of those deals.

In this alternate reality, let’s say the A’s still acquired Peña and didn’t sign Hatteberg, since the Peña deal didn’t add payroll. Peña’s brief time with the A’s is remembered as a disaster, although his .724 OPS in 40 games in 2002 wasn’t that awful considering he was a rookie. Without the pressure of being the guy replacing a legend like Giambi, Peña might have gotten off to a better start or might have been given more time in the minor leagues. Instead, the A’s soured on him quickly and traded him to the Tigers mid-season.

Without the pressure of being “that guy,” Peña went on to have a fine career, posting a 117 OPS+ in 14 seasons. From 2002 until late 2017 — when Matt Olson established himself as a big leaguer — first base was a revolving door for the A’s, with a cast of characters moving through the position that included Hatteberg, Dan Johnson, Nick Swisher, Daric Barton, Chris Carter, Brandon Moss and Yonder Alonso. Peña likely wouldn’t have spent 14 seasons with the A’s, but even if he just spent seven, the A’s would have benefited from his 46-home run season in 2007.

Of course, without Hatteberg, would the A’s have won those 20 straight games that made their 2002 season so famous? Maybe, maybe not. But they probably would have won at least as many games total for the season. Hatteberg’s best season came in 2002, when he was worth 3.3 WAR, but Giambi on his own was worth 7.1 WAR with the Yankees in 2002 and Peña may have come close to equaling Justice’s 1.6 WAR had he been given more time in the big leagues in 2002. Having Giambi in the lineup against the Twins in the 2002 ALDS may have been enough for the A’s to turn a five-game series loss into a win (Giambi hit .357/.526/.571 in the Yankees’ four-game loss to the Angels in the other 2002 ALDS), and then who knows what would have happened from there. Another Bay Bridge World Series, perhaps?

There were plenty of other repercussions. As compensation for losing Giambi to the Yankees in free agency, the A’s received two extra 2002 draft picks: selection 24 in the first round and selection 35 in the supplemental first round (the A’s also received extra picks for losing Isringhausen and Damon). Those two picks became Joe Blanton and Jeremy Brown. Brown only played five big-league games, but Blanton had a 13-year MLB career, four and a half of those seasons coming with the A’s. Had Blanton been selected by another team, he might not have been traded to the Phillies midway through the 2008 season. Without Blanton’s contributions (both on the mound and at the plate) in 2008, the Phillies might not have won the World Series that season.

In addition, the A’s likely wouldn’t have traded Jeremy Giambi in 2002 if Jason were still on the team. The A’s famously traded Jeremy to Philadelphia on May 22, 2002 for John Mabry after Jeremy reportedly wore out his welcome with unprofessional behavior during the A’s slow start that season. Perhaps his older brother would have kept him more in check. Mabry was a solid addition for the A’s that season, accumulating 1.8 WAR in 89 games, but Jeremy posted 1.9 WAR in 82 games with the Phillies after the deal and was still only 27 at the time. His career may have taken a different direction had the two brothers stayed on the same roster.

The general public only knows the details of that Jeremy Giambi deal, of course, because the A’s 2002 season was chronicled in detail by Michael Lewis in the best-selling book “Moneyball.” Lewis’ interest in the A’s centered around how the team would be using new approaches to roster building after losing Giambi and others in free agency. Had the A’s re-signed Giambi, the book’s premise would have looked quite different, and may not have been written at all.

The impact of “Moneyball” on the game of baseball can’t be understated. A whole generation of “stats geeks” suddenly envisioned a career in baseball after reading the book. While the book probably didn’t help the A’s, who lost whatever head start they had on other front offices by allowing some of their statistical models to be published, it did bring in a whole new generation of front-office executives who spurned jobs in finance or academia for baseball. It also helped fuel fan interest in statistical models in baseball. Unquestionably, baseball has become even more of a numbers game after “Moneyball.”

Giambi’s career itself may have taken a different direction had he re-signed with the A’s. He left for New York, in part, to win a World Series. Although the Yankees won the pennant in 2003, they never captured a title during Giambi’s years in the Big Apple (they would win it all the year after he left). He wasn’t an unpopular player with the Yankees, but he never captured the hearts of Yankees’ fans the same way that he did in Oakland. He wasn’t the main star on a team with homegrown stars like Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada and Bernie Williams.

But mostly it was Giambi’s involvement in the BALCO scandal that prevented him from gaining complete support from his new fan base. In December 2003, Giambi testified before a grand jury in the BALCO hearings that he took steroids and HGH. That testimony was leaked to the media, putting Giambi front and center along with Barry Bonds in that scandal.

Giambi testified that he connected with BALCO after hearing about the regimen from Bonds’ trainer, Greg Anderson, during a 2002 All-Star series in Japan. Would Giambi have felt the need to seek out that advice had he remained with his original club, or was that decision made, in part, because he was trying to impress a new fan base? Giambi never failed an MLB drug test and, without the BALCO testimony, may never have admitted to using steroids publicly. He may have ended up a footnote in the Mitchell Report rather than a leading character, which would have altered his legacy significantly.

Would he and the A’s have won a title had he stayed? That is impossible to say. The A’s lost two ALDS series with Giambi in tow, so one can’t just assume they would have gotten over that hump in 2002 and 2003 with him still on the team. But when the A’s lost those two ALDS series with Giambi, his “supporting cast” was still young and inexperienced. One has to think the A’s would have had more success in the postseason with Giambi and more mature versions of Eric Chávez, Miguel Tejada, etc., surrounding him in the lineup. As mentioned earlier, Giambi’s offense alone could have been the difference in their five-game defeat at the hands of the Twins in the 2002 ALDS. In 2003 with the Yankees, Giambi had a .708 OPS against the Twins in the ALDS but a .910 OPS and three home runs in the ALCS against the Red Sox, the team the A’s lost to in the 2003 ALDS. The A’s struggled badly on offense in that series against Boston. Perhaps Giambi would have been the difference in that five-game series as well.

A World Series title in either 2002 or 2003 could have led to enough revenue for the A’s to re-sign Tejada, rather than letting him walk after the 2003 season. Signing Tejada may have made it hard for the A’s to sign Chávez, as they did during the spring of 2004. But, in hindsight, that would have been a better series of events for the A’s. Tejada had a 119 OPS+ during his time with the Orioles (with whom he signed after leaving the A’s), while Chávez would have only one season (2004) with an OPS+ above 110 the rest of his time with the A’s.

Giambi (and Tejada) leaving in free agency also impacted the A’s decision to break up their Big Three pitching trio after the 2004 season. The A’s missed the playoffs by one game in 2004 and the A’s front office traded away both Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder that offseason. In a world where Giambi and Tejada were locked up long term, perhaps the window of contention would have looked open enough for the A’s to keep at least one of those two aces.

Even without Giambi, Tejada, Mulder and Hudson, the A’s returned to the playoffs in 2006, reaching the ALCS in large part due to an MVP-like performance from DH Frank Thomas, who signed a one-year deal before that season. He had a .926 OPS during the regular season and hit .500 in the ALDS that postseason. The A’s probably wouldn’t have signed Thomas to a one-year deal if they had Giambi (although imagine a Giambi/Thomas middle of the A’s order that season, even with Giambi’s deficiencies defensively at first base). But Giambi was Thomas’ equal at the plate in 2006, posting a .971 OPS in 139 games, so the A’s wouldn’t have lost anything offensively with Giambi instead of Thomas. And if the A’s still had Tejada, along with Giambi, they might not have traded for Milton Bradley before that 2006 season. Bradley played well in 2006, but appeared in only 96 games because of injury and he wore out his welcome in 2007. The A’s traded outfielder Andre Ethier for Bradley. Ethier played 12 years in the big leagues, starting in 2006, and accumulated 21.5 WAR for the Dodgers. Keeping Ethier could have helped the A’s avoid the dark years of 2007 to 2011, when the team finished at or under .500 in each of those seasons.

While we can never know for sure if the A’s would have won a World Series during a potential six-year Giambi contract, it’s likely that if they did, the A’s would be sitting in a relatively new stadium now, rather than continuing their work to build one. And it’s entirely likely that Giambi’s statue would be sitting out in front of that stadium. Giambi had an excellent MLB career, but he isn’t the legend he might have been had he stayed with one team for the majority of his career. For both the A’s and Giambi, not signing that contract would be worth a do-over.

Check out the complete Do Over series on this topic page

(Photo of Jason Giambi: MediaNews Group / The Mercury News via Getty Images)

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